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雙語閱讀|古幣收購:最賺錢的投資

BEHIND the heavily fortified door of Stack』s Bowers, a gallery of rare coins in New York, smiling salesmen show off their precious wares neatly displayed in pristine glass cabinets. To the untutored eye, it looks like pocket change. Numismatists, who study the history and art of old money, see well-preserved coins as aesthetic masterpieces worth many times their face value. At an auction organised by Stack』s Bowers on March 31st, an American cent from 1793 (pictured) sold for $940,000, becoming the costliest penny ever.

在紐約的一家稀有貨幣藏館Stack』s Bowers,層層加固的門后,營業員面帶微笑,展示整齊地陳列在復古玻璃櫥窗中,價值連城的古幣。在外行看來,這些古幣與零錢無差。在研究古幣歷史藝術的錢幣學家眼裡,這些精心收藏的貨幣則是具有藝術價值的絕世珍寶,價值超出了面值的數倍。3月31日,Stack』s Bowers舉辦了一場古幣拍賣會,一枚1793年的美國分幣拍賣價為94萬美元,成為了有史以來最昂貴的硬幣。

An index of tangible alternative asset classes compiled by Knight Frank, a consultancy, shows that returns on rare coins over ten years to the end of 2016 were 195%, easily beating art (139%), stamps (133%), furniture (-31%) and the S&P 500 index (58%). Coins are more portable than paintings or furniture, and boast a higher value-to-volume ratio. Stamps may be lighter, but, come doomsday, cannot be melted down.

Knight Frank諮詢公司發布的可替代有形資產指數顯示,在2016年之前的十年中,稀有硬幣的收益率高達195%, 大大超過了藝術品(139%)、郵票(133%)、傢具(-31%)以及標準普爾500指數(58%)。硬幣比繪畫作品和傢具更易攜帶,價值體積比更高。郵票可能更輕便,然而,遺憾的是,郵票是不能熔化的。

The rare-coin market, however, has long had a reputational problem. What distinguishes a highly valuable coin—lustre, sharpness of detail, toning and friction-wear—is imperceptible to the untrained eye. So shady coin-dealers for decades successfully duped investors into paying top dollar for non-premium or even counterfeit coins.

然後,長期以來,稀有錢幣市場存在著聲譽問題。如何鑒定一枚高價值的錢幣呢——光澤、細節的清晰度、色調和磨損程度,這些只有行家才能分辨出來。因此,幾十年來,一些地下交易商哄騙投資者高價購買不值錢的錢幣,甚至是贗品,並得手了。

The market』s wild-west days ended in 1986 when the first independent coin certifier, the Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS), based in California, established itself as an authority on authenticity and quality. Grading each coin on a one to 70 scale, PCGS gave the market transparency, boosting investor confidence and sales volumes. Today, global sales of rare coins are estimated at $5bn-8bn a year, with 85% of the market in America. So important has third-party grading become that almost all rare coins sold at auction these days have been graded and sealed in stickered plastic by either PCGS or its main rival, Numismatic Guaranty Corporation (NGC), which is based in Florida.

直到1986年,錢幣市場才走上正軌。當時位於佛羅里達的首家錢幣鑒定機構專業錢幣分級服務公司(PCGS)成立,成為業界鑒定錢幣真偽與質量的權威。PCGS將所有硬幣劃分為1至70級,使錢幣市場更加透明,增強了投資者信心,錢幣交易額也有所上漲。如今,據估計,全球稀有貨幣年均交易額達到50億~80億美元,而美國市場佔到了85%。三方鑒定必不可少,如今幾乎所有拍賣行的稀有貨幣都需要專業錢幣分級服務公司(PCGS)或其在弗羅里達的競爭對手錢幣保證公司NGC的評級,並用塑料封條加以密封。

Some blame the grading system itself for the eye-watering returns. Investors cling to the assigned grade: even a one-point boost can double or even triple a coin』s retail price. An 1884 silver dollar from the San Francisco mint, for instance, sells for $19,500 at the 62 grade but surges to $65,000 at 63.

一些人對評級系統不滿,因為評級結果會帶來巨大收益。投資者死死盯著評級結果:甚至一分之差都會使錢幣的價格翻兩三倍。例如,1884年舊金山造幣廠鑄造的一枚美元銀幣評為62級時賣到1.95萬美元,升到63級以後,價格劇增至6.5萬美元。

The grading process is subjective: the evaluation criteria include 「eye appeal」. Scott Travers, a coin dealer in New York, says investors sometimes resubmit the same coin ten or 20 times to the same company in hope of an upgrade. All this led to a steady 「grade inflation」, that has been cheered along by investors. But in the long term, a sustained rise by simple fiat in the number of high-grade coins will surely depress prices. Already, a new type of 「grader of graders」 has emerged, hoping to instil some discipline by rating the consistency of the two primary graders. Next: graders of graders of graders?

評級的過程較主觀,其中一項評估標準包括:「美觀」。紐約的錢幣商Scott Travers表示,有時投資者對同一枚錢幣申請評估十多二十次,就是希望鑒定級別能升高。這會導致「評級通脹」,投資者歡呼不已,但是從長遠來看,高級別錢幣不斷增多必然引起價格下降。一種新型的「二次評估機構」出現,對兩大評級機構的鑒定結果進行二次評級,希望大家能以此為戒。接下來要進行三次評級嗎?

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