雙語閱讀｜缺乏信任讓美國經濟低迷

AMERICA is a grumpy and confused place. For an overarching explanation of what has gone wrong, a decline in trust is a good place to start. Trust can be defined as the expectation that other people, or organisations, will act in ways that are fair to you. In the White House and beyond there is precious little of it about. People increasingly view institutions as corrupt, strangers as suspicious, rivals as illegitimate and facts as negotiable.

美國是一個暴躁乖張卻又讓人困惑不解的國家。要想弄清現實出現問題的根本原因，就要從信任的減退開始談起。信任的定義是：期待他人或組織會用公平的方式對待自己。然而，在白宮和美國其他地方，信任卻少之又少。人們愈加認為制度是腐敗的，陌生人是可疑的，競爭對手是非法的，真實真相是可以討價還價的。

The share of Americans who say 「most people can be trusted」 fell from 44% in 1976 to 32% in 2016, according to a survey from the University of Chicago. In a new book, 「The Retreat of Western Liberalism」, Edward Luce, a commentator for the Financial Times in Washington, argues that distrust will contribute to America』s decline and eventually, even, to autocracy. Lack of faith is chewed over in boardrooms, too. In his latest letter to shareholders, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase』s boss, describes trust as America』s 「secret sauce」 and worries that the bottle is running dry.

根據芝加哥大學的一項調查，認為「多數人可以被信任「的美國人比例從1976年時的44%下滑至2016年時的32%。來自華盛頓的《金融時報》評論員愛德華·露絲在其新書《西方自由主義的倒退》（The Retreat of Western Libralism）指出，不信任感會是美國的衰落的一部分，甚至會是最終導致獨裁冒頭的原因之一。缺乏信任的問題也引起了各家企業高管的深思。在摩根大通董事長傑米·德蒙近期致股東的信中，他將信任形容為美國的「秘制調料」，擔憂這瓶調料快要消耗殆盡了。

The tricky bit is reconciling this distrust with the rosy business outlook. The S&P 500 index is near an all-time high, even though many economists say that distrust is toxic for prosperity because transactions become dearer and riskier. An OECD study of 30 economies shows that those with low levels of trust, such as Turkey and Mexico, are far poorer. Three scholars, Luigi Guiso, Paola Sapienza and Luigi Zingales, have shown that pairs of countries (such as Britain and France) whose populations say they distrust each other, have less bilateral trade and investment.

這個棘手之處在於調和不信任與樂觀的商業前景。即使許多經濟學家表示不信任將會使交易更加昂貴和高風險，對經濟繁榮不利，然而，目前標普500指數仍接近歷史最高位。經濟合作與發展組織在研究30個經濟體后表明，那些尚處於低度信任的經濟體（如土耳其和墨西哥）會更加貧困。劉吉·圭索、波拉·薩品澤和劉吉·森格勒斯等三位學者表明，人民互相不信任的國家（如英國和法國）的雙邊貿易與投資也會更少。

America』s mistrust outbreak can be split into two parts: what consumers think, and what firms think. The share of folk who have 「little or no confidence」 in big business has risen from 26% in 1976 to 39% in June, according to Gallup. For banks it has risen from 10% in 1979 to 28% today. Over decades big firms have broken implicit promises to their employees, such as providing a job for life and paying generous pensions. That has probably soured the public』s view. And the financial crisis of 2007-08 blew a giant hole in the reputation of big business and finance.

美國爆發信任危機可分為兩個不同原因：消費者的想法和公司的想法。蓋洛普民意調查顯示，美國人民中對大公司「擁有一點或毫無信任」的比例從1976年時的26%上升到今年六月調查時的39%。對銀行的不信任度也從1979年時10%躍升到如今的28%。過去幾十年來，大公司打破了與員工們心照不宣的承諾，如提供終生的鐵飯碗和優厚的退休金，這可能引起了人們的不滿。2007-2008年的金融危機更是令大企業和金融業的聲譽帶來了巨大打擊。

Yet despite their customers』 distaste, big firms mint huge profits. One explanation is declining competition over the past 20 years. If markets are working, firms that are perceived to behave badly lose market share. In concentrated industries this discipline is lacking. Two recent scandals in oligopolistic bits of the economy illustrate the point. Wells Fargo, a bank, created millions of fake accounts, yet in the three months to June its year-on-year profits rose by 5%. In April a United Airlines passenger was assaulted, causing an outcry. Its underlying profits later rose by 5%, too. In such industries Americans are inured to mistreatment.

儘管大企業們招致了消費者的厭惡，大企業們還是賺取了巨額的利潤。原因之一是在過去的二十年間競爭的減少。如果市場機制正常運轉，表現不佳的公司就會丟失市場份額。然而，這一市場規律並不適用寡頭壟斷的行業。最近在寡頭經濟里出現的兩樁醜聞恰好說明了這一點。富國銀行偽造了數以百萬計的虛假賬戶，可是，截至六月的前三個月中，其年收益率同比依然上升了5%。在四月，一名乘客在乘坐美聯航時遭到襲擊，此事曾引起一片嘩然。然而，此事件后美聯航的營業利潤依然上升了5%。在寡頭的行業中，美國人習慣了受迫害。

Trust between firms, and between firms and investors, is more resilient, but there is evidence of greater wariness. Banks charge corporate borrowers a spread of 2.6 percentage points above the federal-funds rate, compared with 2.0 points in the 20 years before the crisis. The equity-risk premium, or the annual excess return that investors demand to hold shares rather than bonds, is 5.03 points, against a pre-crisis average of 3.45 points, notes Aswath Damodaran of the Stern School of Business at NYU.

公司之間、公司和投資者之間的信任更有彈性，但有證據表明他們更謹慎。銀行向企業借款人收取的費用比聯邦基金利率高出2.6個百分點，而危機前的20年則為2.0個百分點。紐約大學斯特恩商學院的Aswath Damodaran指出，股票風險溢價，即投資者要求持有股票而非債券的年回報率，是5.03點，而危機前的平均水平為3.45點。

The median firm in the S&P 500 holds 62 cents of cash on its balance-sheet per dollar of gross operating profit, up from 45 cents in 2006 (this yardstick excludes America』s giant technology companies, which hoard money). In a sign that more corporate deals end in tears, litigation costs are rising. The revenues of legal firms rose by 103% in 1997-2012, according to the Census Bureau, more quickly than nominal GDP growth, of 85%. And spending on corporate lobbying, a signal that firms think politicians are corruptible(bribe), has risen faster than GDP, too.

標普指數500的中位企業每營利一美元，其賬面上持有62美分的現金，在2006年時，這一數字為45美分（該衡量標準不適用於積聚錢財的美國技術公司巨頭)。有跡象表明，越來越多交易以失敗收場，訴訟費用也在增加。根據人口普查局的數據，從1997年至2012年，合法公司的稅收增加了103%，快於名義國內生產總值的85%增速。同時，企業遊說的增速也超過了國內生產總值——這表明了企業認為政客們容易接受賄賂。

In the long term it is possible that firms could become as mistrustful as consumers. Though individual companies can gain from cronyism, overall confidence will fall if there is sustained political meddling in the courts and regulatory system. And companies as well as people can be trapped into doing business with monopolies that are inept or shifty. In 2016 Facebook said that for the past two years it had overstated how long its users watched videos for, but advertisers have little choice but to stick with the social-media firm. Its profits rose by 71% in the latest quarter.

長遠來看，企業有可能變得與消費者一樣多疑。儘管個別企業能從裙帶主義中獲益；如果在法庭和監管體系中存在持續的政治干預，信心在總體上將會下降。企業也和普通人一樣，在與壟斷企業做生意時會陷入他們的陷阱，無論下套人是愚蠢還是詭詐。在2016年，Facebook表示，在過去的兩年裡誇大了用戶觀看視頻的時長，但是，廣告商除了繼續與這愛社交媒體公司合作外別無選擇。在上個季度，Facebook的盈利增長了71%。

If the bleak predictions of observers such as Mr Luce come true, how might America Inc adjust? One guide is the work of Ronald Coase, an economist who theorised that the boundary of a firm is set according to whether an activity is best done in-house or can be outsourced to the market. If counterparties are less reliable, and contracts expensive to enforce, firms will become 「vertically integrated」, bringing their supply chain in-house.

如果像盧斯的觀察者們的黯淡預言成真的話，美國的上市公司要如何適應呢？經濟學家羅納德·科斯創建的理論指出了一條出路：確立一家企業的界限，即一項措施想得到最優的執行是在公司內部還是外包給市場來實現的。如果合作雙方缺乏信任，則執行合約成本高昂，企業就會選擇「縱向一體化」，即回到公司內部發展供應鏈。

If there is deeper decay of America』s legal system and greater political corruption, then firms would go further and spread 「horizontally」 too, expanding into new industries where their political contacts, and access to favours and capital can be used. This is how business works in much of the emerging world.

如果美國的法律系統和政治進一步腐朽，企業便會「橫向地」走得更遠，向他們的政治尋租、優惠和資本能夠得到發揮的新行業擴張。這就是商業在新興世界的生存之道。

Gotta have faith

要有信心

America is nowhere near such an outcome, at least not yet. Still, a concerted effort to shore up trust between consumers and firms, and between firms, would be healthy. If you subscribe to Silicon Valley』s Utopianism, technology can fill the gap, manufacturing mutual faith where none existed before. Uber』s system of scoring drivers and passengers allows strangers to have confidence in each other. E-commerce sites such as eBay and Alibaba work by creating networks of trust between merchants and customers. In the end, however, government has a vital role. By enforcing competition rules, it can ensure that poor conduct is punished. And by observing the independence of courts and regulators, it can demonstrate that contracts are sacred and that firms operate on a level playing-field. Suspicion is not about to bring American capitalism to its knees. But the country』s vast stock of trust, built up over a century or more, is being depleted quickly.

美國還沒有變成這樣的情況，至少目前還沒有。在消費者和企業之間，以及企業之間，齊心協力的努力有助於健康的發展。如果你相信矽谷的烏托邦主義，會發現技術可以彌補這種不信任，能產生出前所未有的共同信任感。優步對司機和乘客的評分系統能讓陌生人建立信任。eBay和阿里巴巴這樣的電商網站是通過建立商家和客戶之間的信任網路來運營的。然而，最終還是要政府扮演重要角色：通過實施競爭規定，確保不良行為受到懲罰。通過監督法院和監管機構的獨立性，證明合同是神聖的，公司在平等無差別的市場環境下運作。懷疑並不是要否定美國的資本主義，但是，這個國家在一個世紀里苦苦建立的龐大信任，就快耗盡了。

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